In a webinar on Pakistan’s potential shift from geopolitics to geoeconomics that was jointly hosted by the Daily Times, COLABS and Patari Music on 17th April 2021, Pakistan’s Ambassador to Italy, Permanent Representative to FAO, WFP & IFAD, and President of the International Development Law Organization (IDLO) His Excellency Ambassador Jauhar Saleem narrated his conversation with a German expert on Pakistan who said that in the 1960s it was thought that Pakistan would be the next country in Asia after Japan to become an economic power. Unfortunately, regional conflicts and their implications on Pakistan and the country’s poor economic policies hampered its economic growth. Pakistan had been pulled into the whirlpool of geopolitics which was inevitable at the time. Pakistan was later sanctioned for testing its nuclear weapons, followed by the curse of financial assistance that shadowed the country’s economy for decades.
A ray of hope is certainly on the horizon. Recent developments on the economic frontier indicate the return of Pakistan as the new market in the region. Pakistan’s geostrategic location is undoubtedly at the crossroads of what could be called the future economic giants of the global world and perhaps the emerging cultural capitals of the world as well. This is due to the fact the gravitational centre of the international global engine is shifting from the West towards the East and South Asian regions in particular, where the majority of the world population resides. These include China, Russia, India, and the Central Asian Republics. On the other side is the resource-rich Middle East. From a geoeconomics perspective, Pakistan serves as the natural bridge between the two complementary regions, the fusion of which appears to be inevitable in the near future.
With BRI and CPEC, Pakistan has consolidated its position as the ‘connector’ and a new form of block is emerging with Pakistan forming its axis. The new block is largely based on generating a massive economic stimulus across the region and making it the economic capital of the world. In this backdrop, the regional players, other than China, have also started comprehensively engaging with Islamabad, as these countries can foresee Islamabad’s central role in the regional affairs, both political and economic. Moscow is critical to mention in this regard, extending its friendly hand after decades and looking forward to comprehensive bilateral relations with Islamabad. Similarly, the Central Asian Republics , the ASEAN and ECO are also engaging with Pakistan for future opportunities of mutual interest. For example, in terms of economic potential between Pakistan and Iran, Pakistan’s Ambassador to Iran and Permanent Representative to ECO His Excellency Ambassador Rahim Hayat Qureshi stated in the webinar that Pakistan can gain one and a half billion dollar trade with Iran if it harnesses its own geographic potential.
This entire arrangement is very rational and the outlook seems sustainable, as the economic interests of all are involved, with each player optimising its own best interest, and Pakistan by virtue of its geography lies at the centre of all the political and economic equations within the region.
This is perhaps why Pakistan has recently undergone a paradigm shift from traditional to economic security, in the wake of unfolding crescendos in the region, as mentioned above. This is the very reason that unprecedented progress has been witnessed with regard to trade and transit with Afghanistan in the last few months, and Pakistan wishes Kabul to join CPEC and aspires its expansion to Central Asia, a win-win for all. In parallel, from the geostrategic perspective, Islamabad has attained a somewhat central position in the ongoing Afghan Peace Process and its efforts are appreciated across the board.
Washington, in one of its latest reports has declared Pakistan as the most significant partner for Afghanistan on the road to peace. On the other hand, Beijing also wants Pakistan as its camp for two primary reasons. Firstly to deter India and secondly to have an ally via South China Sea conundrum. So, from both geostrategic and geoeconomics viewpoints, Pakistan can flex its muscle in the region as well as globally and can become a major player in world affairs.
While Pakistan can use this natural advantage to connect the east with the west, facilitate China’s westward expansion, and economically flourish, it will but open itself up to a plethora of challenges and threats to its security. Chief among them will be the pitfalls of its becoming a victim of the Sino-US and Sino-Indian rivalry. The geoeconomics environment for Pakistan is conducive, still certain challenges must be addressed to facilitate the policies. Connectivity , to which remains a key expanding Pakistan’s market. In context of law, ace International Law expert, Ali Sultan, was of view that laws need to be amended in line with international standards ,in order to rebranding Pakistan as a business friendly country.
Geography should not be seen as a nosh from heaven, as history tells us many countries turned into ruins despite their promising geographical placement. As Ambassador Saleem rightly pointed out that Pakistan needs to put economic diplomacy at the top of Pakistan’s foreign policy agenda. It is time that Pakistani leadership and state devise such long-run policies and frameworks, both in the domains of security and economy, so that its geography turns into a jackpot and not a curse.
The webinar was presided over by Faisal Sherjan, Advisor to COLABS Board, and Hassan Khan, who covers foreign policy for the Daily Times.
The writer is an independent media and foreign policy analyst. She tweets @MsAishaK
